The progression to criminality

Coffee, Crime, and Contradictions*

In a recent discussion, Fogy was told that the Brazilian unemployment rate was at its lowest in history, but that criminality had also risen—contrary to expected trends.

Sitting back and rationalising these two facts and the conclusions drawn sparked a number of immediate concerns.

What were the inconsistencies that struck me most? Were they the numbers, the contradictions, the timing—or was it something else?

It was more the context. We are in the midst of turbulent times, globally speaking, with great uncertainty around what is going to happen next. Decisions are being made which make future forecasts and current trends that much more difficult to rely on—or even believe.

Then there was the context of Brazil, where the discussion centred around a recent public social security scandal that had just surfaced and was being spun out of control by a biased media. There was also the persistent narrative that Bolsa Família was preventing people from working or wanting to work—supported by the limits on income used as a criterion for continued inclusion in the program. But I’ll hold back the full rant—for now.

So my first observation was: these results cannot be fully representative of the country as a whole. Not all regions have the same, or even similar, demographics. Taken out of context, statistics can be blended into the tastiest breakfast coffee brew and consumed just as easily.

So, to address each of these points:

Even small countries cannot reliably determine nationwide trends and outcomes simply by looking at the totals. A population of five million may easily have an unemployment rate of 5%, while smaller depressed regions may have rates as high as 20–30%. Yet, because these regions’ numbers are much smaller, the impact on the national average is hardly significant—and belies the fact that there is a real need to provide help for these same regions.

Brazil’s poorer northern regions account for a large share of benefit recipients, where official employment is scarce and informal labour is common. In these areas, unemployment may appear lower—not because more people are working formally, but because income is often undeclared to maintain eligibility for assistance, and because many available jobs are already filled informally, reducing the offer of official employment in the first place. In contrast, the more developed central and eastern regions have stronger formal job markets and stricter oversight, while the south tends to strike a more even balance between the two realities.

When it comes to criminality, organized crime has a strong hold on differing regions throughout the nation, with pockets of violence unheard of outside an official war zone. Again, is that truly representative of the nation as a whole?

Criminality often follows opportunity. In densely populated, wealthier regions like São Paulo, the concentration of capital attracts both investors and criminals alike. This is further compounded by the decline in education standards, which once helped instill social values, work discipline, and consumer ethics. Add to this the weakening of the family structure and the distinct shift in mindset among younger generations—who often reject the norms once understood as social anchors—and the picture becomes more complex.

Yes, the rate of unemployment is at a record low. But methods of calculating this figure have also been changed by each government holding office.

Rates of criminality have also risen—in specific regions—while many others have seen a drop. Is this strictly related to organized crime and the economy, or must the elected officials charged with defining policing methods also be held accountable for the populist, re-electable decisions they make, rather than the policies that would more effectively stem the tide?

Is this just a Brazilian problem, as the media likes to suggest? Hardly. This game—of distorting data, shifting blame, and protecting interests—has gone global. It’s been mastered, exported, and used to quietly enrich those already at the top.

Fogy may have tucked a few deeper meanings into the brew—but this is a blog post, not a treatise. Digest at your own pace.

I guess I might have to revisit this theme in the future. But for now, bask in the underlying theme and ask yourself if you agree with these statements overall—or strongly oppose. Let’s get some feedback rolling and have a proper discussion.

Cheers.

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