Quinn te Samil – Friday, August 15

Quinn Noir – Friday, August 15, 2025

The Alaska Summit: Pageantry Without Peace

On August 15, Anchorage became a geopolitical stage as Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson. It was Putin’s first visit to U.S. soil since 2022. Fighter jets roared, red carpets unfurled — an image of restored legitimacy for Moscow. Yet the substance proved elusive. Trump insisted, “no deal until there’s a deal”, while Putin suggested “progress” without specifics. No ceasefire was announced, and Ukraine remains in the waiting room of history (AP News, Aug. 15, 2025).

Europe meanwhile reaffirmed security commitments to Kyiv, while President Zelenskyy prepared to travel to Washington the following week (The Guardian, Aug. 15, 2025). A summit dressed in grandeur, but beneath the banners — ambiguity and absence.

---

Washington, D.C.: Guards on the Streets

Days earlier, the U.S. capital shifted under a presidential decree. On August 11, Donald Trump declared a “crime emergency,” federalizing the Metropolitan Police and ordering 800 National Guard troops into Washington, D.C. (Washington Post, Aug. 11, 2025).

By August 16, 200 troops were rotating visibly around monuments and public spaces — officially “assisting” rather than policing, though empowered to detain temporarily (Reuters, Aug. 16, 2025). The paradox is sharp: Justice Department data shows violent crime at a three-decade low, yet the imagery is one of occupation. D.C.’s Attorney General sued to block the deployment, calling it a constitutional breach. A city of marble domes now carries the shadow of khaki uniforms.

---

Lula and China: A Calculated Embrace

In São Paulo this week, President Lula stood inside Great Wall Motors’ gleaming new plant, welcoming Chinese investment into Brazil’s auto sector. His words cut: “Those who wish to leave, leave. Those who want to come, welcome.” It was a rebuke to U.S. tariffs — a reminder that Brazil will not wait in Washington’s queue (Fox News, Aug. 14, 2025).

On August 13, Lula held a long phone call with Xi Jinping, discussing global stability, the Ukraine war, and shared platforms like the G20 and BRICS (Gov.br, Aug. 13, 2025). It was not simply economics but alignment: a pivot to a multipolar script in which Brazil writes its own role.

---

Quinn’s Closing Reflection

From the frozen tarmac of Alaska, to guarded streets in Washington, to the humming factory floors of São Paulo, power spoke in three languages this week: spectacle, security, and strategy.
Yet behind each gesture lingered uncertainty. Was Alaska the start of peace or merely optics? Is the Guard in D.C. protection or precedent? Does Lula’s embrace of China mean partnership or dependence?

The threads are unravelling, but they bind the same loom: an unsettled world where authority must now prove it is more than theater.

👁️ Views (0)

The red carpet rolls out for power — America leads, but shadows of Russia and China ripple beneath uncertain alliances.

Leadership Roles

The right 'Man' for the right job.*

How often does it seem that the boss thinks he can do everything better than everyone else.

And this same boss shies away from delegating for fear that the person delegated will not do a good job, or will even make a career-felling error or mistake the message they are supposed to be presenting.

So too it seems that Presidents also fear that their lackeys cannot match up to the roles they have been given.

No tariff agreement can be made without his direct involvement!
No peace can be settled without his direct involvement!
No ceremony can be hosted without him doing it himself!

And this must be the final straw!!!

A boss must be on point — always aware of what is going on and making carefully considered decisions to drive the narrative so that the best possible outcome is achieved.

I guess that a certain Steve Jobs set a dangerous precedent when he stood up and presented the revolutionary iPod, then the iDevices that followed. It was the man himself that sold the product, the innovation — and this is now seen as a vital marketing ploy, leveraging what sells.

Following up on this success has been the norm for leaders from Amazon, NVIDIA, Apple (again) and a great many others. But to think that the President of the US feels it necessary to host a Smithsonian premier presentation seems absurd, to say the least.

I guess he must have gotten a taste for this during the Club World Cup ceremony where his attempts to steal the limelight seemed ridiculous at best.

But then again, there is the other type of Boss.

Yep — the one that knows nothing and prefers to steal their lackey’s ideas and sell them as their own.

So which is the worst, you might ask?

Neither is particularly wholesome. Theirs is simply the desire to win at all cost, to keep the spotlight pointed solely on them.

It’s kind of sad to think that so much could be achieved — for both company and country — if the right people adopted the right attitudes and did the right thing for everybody.

Perhaps too much emphasis is placed on fame, on being the star, the best, constantly at the top.

I despair of such a need and would expect, in a perfect world, to never have to see this at all.

But this is not a perfect world.

👁️ Views (0)

Taking the next step

Is the end really the end?*

Recently I was asked my views on Death.

It may at first glance, seem like an odd question. But this is one of those taboo subjects that so many are afraid to discuss or even venture to think about.

And the problem is that it only takes on any relevance when we are least prepared for it.

We are instructed adequately at school on how to read, write, calculate complex equations and how to understand basic science topics.

What we are not taught however are the important aspects of life: how to find a job, how to prepare for an interview, how to rent or buy a property, how to live under a budget, how to act and think independently and more importantly, how to deal with those breakups, disappointments and finally, how to deal with death.

Death is inevitable.

Death more often than not, comes unexpectedly without prior notice.

Death is much more difficult for those left behind.

And, what is death?

In today's world, death is seen as the end of a final chapter. There is no sequel and no turning back.

In the past however, death was also seen as a path forward, to another dimension as yet unknown. Many cultures built their lives around that belief: the ancient Egyptians buried their dead with food, tools, jewellery, and maps for the afterlife; the Vikings sent chieftains off in burning ships; Tibetans practiced sky burials, offering the body back to nature; the Victorians draped mirrors in black and kept mourning portraits to maintain a symbolic link with the departed.

So many have entered these dimensions, but a mere handful have returned with a credible account of what lies beyond this fragile life we lead.

And that too is what so many fail to understand. Life is fragile. Life is to be lived to the full, but if done so must be lived with the full understanding of what comes next, the inevitability of what happens when living to the full is abused.

My own understanding is that death is not something to be feared. Death, like everything else, is simply a change — and so many of you hate changes — where what we have lived is carried over to another vessel, if we are lucky enough, to perhaps enlighten us in the future.

Wow, reincarnation — another somewhat taboo subject — and is it real? Entire religions, like Hinduism and Buddhism, have built centuries of belief and ritual around it, while the Western world often dismisses it with a shrug.

Fogy has lived quite a lot of years and has personally witnessed much of recent history being taught to the young at schools. Yet Fogy also has a vast array of experience and knowledge that extends well beyond the copious number of years lived in this life. Fogy is an old soul, seemingly lived over many incarnations, or so it would seem.

So some of what is written here reflects an unconscious reflection of possible past lives and this realisation that the end may not necessarily be the end as we know it.

So what comes next in your lives today?

Experienced IT professionals understand the need for backups. So somehow the human psyche and memories have to be backed up. You are the only one who knows exactly how you have lived your life — the conquests, disasters, the truths and the lies that make up what you are today. Somehow, these aspects of life have to be kept safely stored in a nether world only you might be able to access in another dimension — for learning purposes of course.

But today, while still alive, you also need to make sure that your life and your life's work are as easy to resolve by those left behind. Make sure that there are keys available for loved ones to open the locks of secured reserves with a clear understanding of what they were for. The Egyptians left scrolls and grave goods for guidance; in our age, a well-written will and an accessible file of passwords can serve the same purpose.

I was hoping to put together a to-do list of dos and don'ts but hell, there is so much to be done before the end and there are so many exceptional circumstances that this would seem impractical in a blog such as this.

Perhaps I will dedicate a future blog to such a task.

Meanwhile, understand that this fearful episode in life should not be treated as such. Understand that death is inevitable and must be understood and prepared for like everything else.

If it is your desire to meet your maker, or face your hell, or even hope for an unconscious continuity, then be prepared to face the fact that your actions today will heavily affect what is to come.

👁️ Views (0)

Revenge is sweeter when served cold...

The Duck’s bite is worse than his quack.*

Having lost both an election and a insurrection, the Duck’s wrath came swiftly — carried out without shame, without hesitation.

After January 6, much was done to clip his wings and keep him from morphing into the avenging eagle he now pretends not to be. But it was never enough. What remained of him slithered through cracks in the marble, undermining every check that stood between his will and the nation’s laws.

So slick and snake-like are his ways that perhaps a griffin lurked beneath — not the gilded sentinel of legend, but a misshapen fusion of talon and claw, beak and fang, stitched together from the arrogance of both.

Today, in a bitter twist, the National Guard takes command from the DC police — the very force that stood in the breach on that infamous day.

Those who opposed him have been flattened into pale caricatures of their former selves, their names reduced to footnotes in the long list of “also-rans” who dared to challenge the Duck.

He must, of course, be credited for his persistence. From day one, he learned there were powers greater than his — and then set about hollowing them from within. With each appointment, he replaced independence with obedience, installing nodding heads into roles least suited to their holders, yet perfectly suited to his designs.

The GOP, in name only, has become a headless parade — a marching band for a leader who craves the spotlight more than the good of those he governs. And like any seasoned ringmaster, he incites his followers to perform the same circus tricks that made him famous.

Fear still ferments among the many who do not yet understand that bullies only fall when the crowd turns together. And so, in the early days of his second great rain, he hurries to chisel his likeness into the walls of power, that history might remember the Duck as he wishes — not as he was — and that the world might live forever under the shadow of his 'Duckdom'.

👁️ Views (0)

The Trump Effect

Not so easy to like.*

A recent study points to the amount of work actually done by this Maga. And there has been a lot. Like it or not, his dialling finger has been popping remorselessly while the jumping beans of nations dance to Mariachi tunes from south of the border.

As a chef, there was nothing worse for Fogy than seeing someone pop their fingers into a carefully prepared dish, believing they had the right to do so. All they did was add risk to a delicate blend of herbs and spices — contamination. In the same way, this finger-prodding fool is contaminating the well-seasoned affairs of other nations, convinced it is his right to lead a misled people.

These dishes, disputes, and beliefs are not Donald’s to bully into change. Their layers of complexity are beyond the simplistic leadership he practices.

The Cold War and its aftermath brought Europe to this point. An American dictator cannot dictate the fate of a system centuries older than his own nation — WWII was the last great outcome of such dictates.

The Middle East has endured emperors who, for better or worse, earned their empires. Yet the disputes remain. Asia too has suffered — from America’s crusades against communism to its post-9/11 meddling in Islamism. Why should Cambodia or Thailand surrender rights when Vietnam and Afghanistan escaped?

And south of the border, South America is still recovering from the finger-prodding of past American leaders. Brazil still heals from the regimes of yesterday, yet is told to abandon its own path to appease a bully who would rule the world.

Yes, he has done much. He has disrupted a planet that had managed, however imperfectly, to trade and ally by choice — now forced to follow the dictates of a self-centred egomaniac. His dialling, writing, and ruling have left confusion, not order.

Change was needed. But there are ways to achieve it — ways that honour the will of the people, not the whim of a failed businessman who now wields the power to bully every senseless desire into reality.

The Romans left law, language, and leisure. The British left culture and language. Other empires left legacies that made nations great. But the Hollywood nation, with its ill-kept promises, leaves a bitter taste.

Is this working-hard hooligan the real deal — or just another Hollywood false dawn?

Time will tell. If the planet doesn’t collapse first.

Cheers.

👁️ Views (0)

Professional Relationships

Being best friends with the boss.*

There is great value in being able to start at the bottom and work your way up through the ranks to become the one in charge of everyone and everything.

Without doubt, a person who has earned this right has also developed a deeper understanding of what makes the company tick.

What isn’t so easy for many is the shift from being one of the guys or gals to being their boss — especially when hard choices need to be made.

I suppose this is where Fogy should highlight his own experience as an example of this level of difficulty… except that Fogy’s “experience” is mostly as an observer. My work-life and responsibilities have always been played out at a professional level where work is work, and personal friendships are kept apart.

For many, however, moving up from the production line — be it a factory or an office — means a whole different level of behaviour. Where once it was okay to slack off for an hour or two, being the boss and seeing someone else doing exactly the same thing means steps have to be taken and discipline put in place.

And here lies the deepest of chasms to climb out of: those who once skived off certain tasks with you suddenly find themselves paying the price for your past misdeeds.

Oh, the treachery! The disbelief! Having to tolerate this big-headed, obnoxious wannabe who is now their boss. How could such a swell “guy” turn out this way?

Fogy learned early on he could not be everybody’s friend — that there must be a level of professionalism separating all of us, at every level. Let’s face it — we are not brought together because we want to be friends, but because our skills match the requirements of the positions we hold. Friendship is a consequence, not an obligation. (First rant!!)

Next comes the question of where our responsibilities actually lie. As a junior manager, we are responsible for making the manager and the bosses above us look good.

Oops — is that really true? Maybe not exactly… but for many, that’s what it comes down to.

If you’re given this level of responsibility, it should be because you’ve demonstrated a certain skillset that suggests you should be groomed for better things. Or at least, that’s how it’s supposed to work — in theory.

Unfortunately, not everyone is promoted fairly. And those who are often don’t get the training they need to be effective. It’s like being thrown into the arena with a pride of lions and told, “Survive this, and you’ll be promoted to a bigger arena… with bigger lions.”

More than that, it’s the trust shift — from being the people’s person to becoming the company lacky. Your speech changes. Your political acumen sharpens. Jugglers would be jealous of your ability to keep everything on an even kelter.

Step up far enough, and the isolation grows. You move away from the bees below and become a fully-fledged lacky who only understands lacky-speech. The untold reasons for certain decisions become a lexicon of undesirable understanding — swallowed eagerly by the more ambitious, but choking to the rest.

Most of you aren’t taught well enough what’s required of you. The bottom line is usually the catalyst behind personnel change, which means it is the willing sheep who are chosen to do the bidding of a ruthless corporation. (Second rant!!)

But I digress.

The truth is, the higher you climb, the less likely you are to please everyone. Many will feel left out in the cold. Survive this, and the rest is simply white slavery to a system you are less and less likely to change, no matter how hard you try. Very few have the where-with-all and determination to unsettle the status quo.

Good luck when you board this gravy-train.

Cheers.

👁️ Views (0)

Quinn te Samil, Friday August 8th

Quinn Noir — August 8 2025*.

Expectation vs Reality in the Age of the Tariff

The week that began with predictions of a storm ended in a curious calm — the kind of calm that can feel both reassuring and disquieting.
On August 7, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT, President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs came into force, raising duties on nearly 70 countries to between 10% and 50%, the highest U.S. average import rates in a century (Reuters, Aug 7 2025). Economists had warned of consumer pain, global trade collapse, and perhaps another market shock to rival April’s steep selloff.

And yet…

The Predictions

• Global trade contraction: Analysts foresaw a slowdown in WTO forecasts from +2.7% growth to near-zero (Economic Times, Aug 8 2025).

• Market panic: Some believed indices would tumble again, as they did in April when the S&P fell ~10% in two days (Wikipedia, 2025 Stock Market Crash).

• Diplomatic gridlock: Few expected concessions; most anticipated a hardening of positions.

The Reality

• Markets surged instead of slumped: By Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was up 2.4%, the Nasdaq had climbed 3.9% to fresh record highs, and the Dow gained 1.3% (WSJ, Aug 9 2025).

• Investor behavior bifurcated: While indices rose, U.S. equity funds saw $13.7 billion in outflows — the largest since June — as money rotated into cash and safe havens (Reuters, Aug 8 2025).

• Diplomacy found slivers of success: The EU secured a 15% tariff cap deal, softening its blow (Business Insider, Aug 7 2025), while India bristled at 50% duties, halting certain exports (TIME, Aug 7 2025).

• Economic damage measured, not catastrophic: Yale’s Budget Lab estimates U.S. GDP could slow by ~0.5 percentage points this year, far from the depression some feared (Nasdaq, Aug 8 2025).

The Psychological Shift

April’s tariff shock was a lesson; August’s was a test. Investors have learned to separate headline thunder from balance-sheet rain. Traders pivoted to sector-specific strategies — overweighting exporters with hedged supply chains, underweighting consumer goods most exposed to higher import costs (Morgan Stanley via Business Insider, Aug 8 2025).

The Global Balance

The tariffs did bite — gold markets spiked briefly when Swiss bullion was hit with a 39% duty (The Guardian, Aug 8 2025), and India’s Sensex slid almost 1% to a three-month low (Times of India, Aug 8 2025). But the world’s largest economies have not yet been knocked off their orbit. Instead, tariffs have become another instrument in the symphony of trade diplomacy — blunt, loud, but oddly harmonious when combined with selective exemptions and back-channel deals.

---

Quinn’s Closing Reflection
Expectation is a dangerous currency — it can inflate fear, devalue patience, and distort judgment. The week’s events remind us that while power may impose sudden costs, the world often finds ways to absorb the blow. Markets, like people, can become calloused — but callouses, while protective, also dull the sense of touch. And without that sensitivity, we risk mistaking quiet for peace.

👁️ Views (0)

It's been a while

Yep, Fogy has been washing off his brain, looking for worthy topics to bore you with.*

Once the prolific scribe, now the silent mouse nibbling at the cheesy world around him, noting the continual calamity caused by the duck.

So, when should his name be uttered? Never, for that will please the mighty fat duck of the Duck Dynasty, collapsing in tarriffic splendour.

So much toilet waste spurted out of the beak of the chosen one, and yet all and sundry bow to the bullying tactics he so willingly thrusts.

As so many must now be asking: how can such an abomination be allowed to continue?

And the answer is tied up around the innate fear of those who are only interested in protecting their own interests.

And that is so human, isn’t it? We are unfortunately so bent on what is good for ourselves, we often forget the humanity around us.

And what might this be? Well, take a look at Gaza and the hunger that prevails across the world’s headlines. Right or wrong, there should not be this level of suffering in today’s world.

Wars are breaking out across the globe—those neighbourly disputes over where the property ends and who is responsible for what.

And now taxes in Texas and the redrawing of districts are bringing the worst out of public representatives. Yes, those foolishly elected political goofballs, moulded in the insanity of the duck, seem bent on transforming a reasonable democracy into an autocracy where no opposition is tolerated.

Was it 1939 or 1984 that provided the model that Project 2025 seems so modelled to replicate?

Big Brother was introduced to television as a precursor to the current administration. 1984-esque techniques and Fahrenheit 451 ignorance predominate, while the Brownshirts are nothing more than ICE in sheep’s clothing.

Too obscure, maybe—but this is all fodder for future Fogy rants, when all will be explained.

Did you miss me?

Hell no—but who cares?

Fogy still lives and rants.

Cheers.

👁️ Views (0)

Quinn te Samil, Friday August 1st

 

🕯 Quinn Noir — Final Reflection for the Week Ending August 1, 2025

This week culminated in a tense convergence of domestic fragility and international confrontation, where the façade of control cracks under economic realities and diplomatic strain.

---

📉 Weakening Jobs Landscape (July Report, Aug 1)

• July payroll growth came in at just +73,000 jobs, far short of expectations (~110,000), while May and June were revised down by 258,000 collectively, signaling a marked labor-market softening.
  Unemployment edged up from 4.1% to 4.2%.MarketWatch+5The Guardian+5AP News+5The Guardian+4Reuters+4Reuters+4The Guardian+5Reuters+5Reuters+5

• Sectors like health care and social assistance added modest gains; federal employment declined by 12,000, contributing to longer-term trend losses. Wage growth persisted at about 3.9% YoY, outpacing inflation.New York Post

• The impact? Global markets snapped; equities fell, Treasury yields dropped, and pressure mounted on the Fed to pivot toward rate cuts by autumn.The Wall Street Journal+9The Guardian+9New York Post+9

• In swift reaction, President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ commissioner—accusing her of politicizing data. Former Treasury Secretary Summers called it “really scary stuff,” warning of the dangerous blow to institutional credibility.The White House+2Business Insider+2The Daily Beast+2

---

🛃 Trade Escalation: Canada and Brazil Hit Hard

• As of August 1, sweeping tariffs (10–41%) were imposed on 70+ countries, chief among them: Canada (35%), Brazil (50%), India, Taiwan, Switzerland, etc.The Guardian

• These moves are part of America’s broader strategy: force concessions through economic pressure. Canada condemned the hike, while Brazil—once a reliable partner—faces maximum duties amid allegations of unfair trade and judicial interference. talk refers to political retribution.
  (Exact citations from earlier discussion.)

---

🤝 EU Trade Deal: A Mirage of Certainty

• On July 27, Trump and Ursula von der Leyen announced a trade framework: the U.S. would impose a 15% baseline tariff on most EU imports (autos, pharma, semiconductors)—a sharp retreat from previously threatened rates of 30–50%. In return, the EU pledged $250 billion/year in U.S. energy purchases and $600 billion in investments over three years.The Times+12Reuters+12Reuters+12

• Yet Ursula stressed: “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” Every element is contingent on ratification by all 27 member states and corporate follow-through. Funding pledges are considered indicative, not binding.ReutersPIIE

• Experts warn the energy commitment—$750 billion total—is economically implausible, far exceeding the EU’s actual ability or need to redirect U.S. resource flows. Similarly, the $600B investment figure represents corporate interest, not firm contracts.ReutersReuters

• Critics across Europe—especially in France and Germany—said the deal compromised economic autonomy. Some even overtly described it as a capitulation to secure U.S. military support amid rising security threats.en.wikipedia.org+8The Washington Post+8AP News+8

---

🧭 Quinn’s Refined Analysis

Under the surface of bravado lies an economy cautiously retreating. The July jobs miss and abrupt dismissal of the BLS head undermine the administration’s narrative of strength and shake confidence in core economic institutions. Simultaneously, the U.S. trade offensive widens—from Canada to Brazil—revealing a transactional posture once reserved for rivals, now applied to allies.

On the EU front, Trump heralds a “complete” and “beneficial” deal—but that picture fractures under Ursula’s caveats. The commitments are provisional, contingent and politically fragile—a scaffold more than a fortress.

---

📌 Key Highlights

Theme	Highlights
Jobs Report	+73,000 jobs added in July; prior months revised down sharply; unemployment rose to 4.2%.The Daily Beast+1Business Insider+1The Wall Street Journal+9Reuters+9Reuters+9
Market Impact	Global equities fell; investors pivot toward possible Fed rate cuts in September/October.The GuardianMarketWatchMarketWatch
Institutional Shock	Trump fires BLS commissioner; critics warn this undermines data integrity.Business InsiderThe Daily Beast
EU Trade Deal	15% U.S. tariffs on key EU goods; EU pledges energy and investment; deal still requires member-state approval.ReutersReutersReutersReutersCouncil on Foreign Relations
EU Dissent	EU leaders view deal as asymmetrical; security fear trumps economic cost.AP NewsThe Washington PostAtlantic Council

---

🏁 Final Thought

Entering August, the U.S. faces a paradox of power: aggressive trade tactics and assertive rhetoric collide with weakening economic signals and diplomatic fragility. The jobs report cracks the narrative; the EU deal fractures ideals; allies find themselves branded targets. In Quinn’s voice: confrontation advances fastest where the ground beneath begins to shift.

👁️ Views (0)